On March 1, 2001, the Endowment's Robert Nurick, Andrew Kuchins, Rose Gottemoeller,
Anatol Lieven, and Martha Brill Olcott presented the findings of the new report
An Agenda for Renewal: US-Russian Relations at Carnegie's Moscow Center to an
audience of distinguished members of Russia's foreign policy community. The
report is the result of in-depth discussion and analysis by the Endowment's
leading experts and sets out an innovative agenda for the renewal of the US-Russian
relationship, based on policies that capitalize on areas of mutual interest
and affirm the long-term vision of a Russia integrated into Western economic,
political, and security structures. A summary of the presentation and resulting
commentary and discussion is presented below.
"We hope the Agenda for Renewal will provoke a constructive debate in Moscow
on the prospects for developing US-Russian relations," said Robert Nurick,
the director of Carnegie's Moscow Center, in his opening remarks. Andrew Kuchins,
the director of Carnegie's Russian and Eurasian program, agreed, adding that
the present time is "an important moment to reassess policy." Kuchins
noted that finding consensus amongst Carnegie's experts (Anders Aslund, Thomas
Carothers, Thomas Graham, Stephen Holmes, Andrew Kuchins, Anatol Lieven, Michael
McFaul, Martha Brill Olcott, and Jon Wolfsthal) on the wide-ranging recommendations
presented in the report was difficult, but that all the experts agreed on the
report's basic findings. Among the report's recommendations are that the United
States refocus its democracy assistance program to work more with Russian society
rather than with the Russian government, and that assistance be given to strengthen
Russia's rule-of-law and renovate the nation's system of higher education.
Rose Gottemoeller, Senior Associate at the Endowment, noted the importance of
putting the US-Russian nuclear relationship on new footing at the beginning
of President George W. Bush's administration. Among the recommendations contained
in the report are to enhance cooperation on strategic stability and threat reduction,
replace the Cold War hair-trigger operational deterrence posture to reduce the
danger of an inadvertent nuclear strike, and to double the resources allocated
to the dismantlement of Russian weapons and the prevention of the proliferation
of weapons and fissile materials from the former Soviet Union. National Missile
Defense (NMD) remains the most controversial issue between the two nations;
Gottemoeller recommended that if such a system were to be built along the lines
proposed by the Clinton administration--currently the most technically feasible
proposal-the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty should be amended to account
for NMD, and not scrapped altogether.
"Many of the existing US policies reflect the paranoia of the Cold War
era," said Senior Associate Anatol Lieven. Lieven suggested that the United
States move to a more realistic and practical approach to Russia. In particular,
Lieven advised that the United States and Russia examine more closely the impact
of the expansion of the European Union (EU), and the resulting border tensions
between EU and non-EU states, a development which could prove more important
than NATO expansion. Carnegie's report recommends that the United States refrain
from extending NATO memberships to states on the territory of the former Soviet
Union before 2005. Speaking on the current conflict in Chechnya, Lieven noted
that while Russia's entry into the conflict could be criticized, it is now more
difficult to suggest that Russia withdraw from the area immediately, since this
might do more harm than good.
Carnegie Senior Associate Martha Brill Olcott discussed US policy in the Caspian
region. The Carnegie report proposes that "the United States move away
from reflexive rivalry to real cooperation with Russia in Central Asia and the
south Caucasus, including the adoption of a genuine multi-pipeline policy on
Caspian oil." Olcott remarked that in terms of strategic importance to
the United States, the proven oil reserves in the Persian Gulf are much more
vast and vital to US security. One possible area of cooperation with Russia
would be to work together to address new security threats in the region, such
as the spread of drug trafficking. According to Olcott, the "development
of democracy in the region requires stability, and to establish stability, real
economic and political reform should be encouraged by the United States."
Asked about the mechanisms the Endowment would use to use to make its proposals
known to the new Bush administration, Andrew Kuchins noted that since the introduction
of the Agenda for Renewal in Washington on December 7, 2000, the Endowment has
utilized articles, conferences, and discussions, as well as personal contacts
within the new administration to introduce its recommendations to Washington's
foreign policy community-liberals and conservatives alike--and to members of
the Bush administration.
Asked about the chances of NATO expansion and the deployment of NMD happening
simultaneously, Anatol Lieven remarked that if this were to happen, both processes
would be compromised, and US-Russian relations would be seriously harmed. Kuchins
noted that the chances of NATO expansion and NMD deployment occurring simultaneously
are low, since both will require large amounts of financial and political capital.
However, if this were to happen, Kuchins agreed that it would have a severely
negative impact on relations between the United States and Russia.
Yuri Davidov, from the Institute of USA and Canada, agreed with the suggestion
that it was important for the United States to work more directly with Russian
society rather than with the Russian government to promote democracy. However,
Davidov questioned whether the report overemphasized security, neglecting economic
assistance and reform. Lieven responded that while the question of economic
relations remains important for the West, the role of the United States in promoting
economic reform will most likely be limited to encouraging trade and investment
in Russia and helping Russia enter the World Trade Organization. Rose Gottemoeller
remarked that the Bush administration's current emphasis on international security
is a welcome development, and that the Clinton and Yeltsin administrations did
not do enough to promote nuclear security. Kuchins agreed that "we have
not achieved all we had hoped in the past decade in the establishment of nuclear
security."
Robert Nurick voiced his agreement with Gottemoeller that "certain core
security issues" need attention. Nurick underlined the importance of viewing
US-Russian relations in a global context, and of looking in particular at Russian-European
relations. "Both the EU and NATO have a set of rules and expectations that
are now at the heart of global processes," said Nurick. "We need to
examine how Russia will relate to these new rules," he added. Kuchins concurred,
noting that "if Russia wants to become a great European power than it should
recognize European political, social, and economic standards."
Sergei Rogov, director of the Institute of USA and Canada, suggested that the
United States has some responsibility to assist Russia's integration into the
world market, given extensive work on economic reform in Russia by both the
United States and the International Monetary Fund in the past. Inquiring as
to the position of Carnegie's experts to this suggestion, Rogov asked what the
strategy of the new administration will be with regards to Russia.
Addressing this question, Lieven noted that the current US administration is
not unified in its foreign policy vision. Olcott agreed, adding that "foreign
policy has its own life," and remarking that Clinton's early approaches
to foreign policy were modified, and with time did not represent such the dramatic
shift in US foreign policy that he had earlier hoped for. Nurick added that
in time, the "effect of reality" will be felt by the Bush administration,
and they will adapt their proposals to what is politically possible. "It
is very difficult to change relations without trying to change the minds of
those on the other side," said Nurick. He concluded that a broadening of
the foreign policy agenda to account for the interests of the United States
and Russia was the best way to improve relations between the two countries.
Summary prepared by Erik Scott, Junior Fellow with the Russian and Eurasian Program