Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The ongoing state of war and uncertain future mean that the Russian elites cannot make long-term plans, which encourages them to flout the old rules, live for today, and undertake power moves to score a win against their rivals.
Like the Soviet one that preceded it, his system is always on the brink of collapse.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, and Vera Mironova, an associate fellow at Harvard's Davis Center, to discuss the consequences of the March 22 terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall and its consequences for regime stability.
Putin is more likely to promote people in their forties than older generations who have been in power for too long and can envisage life without him. But Russia doesn’t have enough young administrators ready to replace those in their sixties.
The formation in Russia of a new concept of “fairness” is testament to how long the war in Ukraine is expected to continue. The “special military operation” is fast approaching a way of life.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss his new paper for Carnegie Endowment, "Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus."
Zelensky and Yermak find themselves tied to one another and somewhat interdependent: the former on the staffing policy of his head of administration, the latter on the political survival of his patron.
Russia’s economy is being revved up by the Kremlin’s wartime priorities. Having largely completed an adjustment to the Western sanctions regime, the economy has stabilized but is now more dependent on oil prices. This hard-won stability may last a long time, but it is not eternal.
Why the West Won’t Be Able to Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China
The ideas of economist Adam Smith could help the West to come up with more effective ways to limit Russia’s military capabilities.
While Baku appears inclined to pursue a “business only” arrangement with the European Union, it’s unclear whether that would be acceptable for Brussels.
If the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks is maintained at the levels of March and Russian air defenses do not improve, Ukraine will be able to keep damaging Russian refineries faster than they can be fixed, slowly but steadily eroding the country’s refining capacity.
Western leaders’ apathy and lack of interest in Belarus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that leaves Belarus trapped in Moscow’s smothering embrace more or less indefinitely. This paper identifies options for a more effective Western strategy that takes into account existing opportunities and limitations.
Ukraine’s decision not to hold presidential elections amid the Russian invasion and martial law has raised sensitive questions about Zelensky’s position.
The suspected shooters in the Crocus City attack were Tajiks, which has caused a backlash against labor migrants in Russia. Relations between Tajikistan and Russia, however, are unlikely to be impacted.
Rather than radical anti-terrorist measures or some kind of “retribution against Ukraine,” the return of the death penalty and a stricter migration policy are being touted as possible responses to the attack at Crocus City Hall. But neither of those initiatives is guaranteed or imminent.
In this episode of the Carnegie Politika podcast, host Alex Gabuev is joined by Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and editor-in-chief of Carnegie Politika. Together, they delve into the implications of Russia’s official election results for the future of Putin’s political regime.
Today’s coerced voters are a world away from the unfortunates who a decade ago were secretly driven to special polling stations. In this month’s presidential election, administrative and corporate mobilization was given pride of place.
While there is no doubt over the election’s outcome, the presidential campaign is already exposing the myth of complete consolidation around an irreplaceable president. Vladimir Putin may be winning in the short term, but he is strewing mines beneath the country’s future.
The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.