The ongoing state of war and uncertain future mean that the Russian elites cannot make long-term plans, which encourages them to flout the old rules, live for today, and undertake power moves to score a win against their rivals.
Putin is more likely to promote people in their forties than older generations who have been in power for too long and can envisage life without him. But Russia doesn’t have enough young administrators ready to replace those in their sixties.
Today’s coerced voters are a world away from the unfortunates who a decade ago were secretly driven to special polling stations. In this month’s presidential election, administrative and corporate mobilization was given pride of place.
The president’s inclination to ignore his administration and act upon his own initiative is damaging to both himself and the power vertical he created.
Enterprising and competent officials know full well they can survive without Putin. Whether the regime can survive without them, though, is another matter.
The Kremlin will seek to diffuse the public’s attention through a barrage of events, distracting people from economic problems and rumors of further mobilization.