Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A number of emerging powers in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are unwilling to get in lockstep with either China or the United States. Instead, they see deepening great power conflict as dangerous and believe they will have to pursue their interests shrewdly in order to meet the rising demands of their people. Below, we will be offering case studies on ten states that are a meaningful sample of these emerging powers, and collectively represent over half of the Global South’s GDP and nearly half of its population. These cases form the empirical basis for a forthcoming study on how America will need to update its foreign policy to an emerging world order that is fragmented, transactional, and competitive.
Collectively, a group of emerging powers in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are growing in their geopolitical weight and diplomatic ambition. How closely do they align with the United States when it comes to Russia and China? What drives their decisions on the world stage? How can the United States integrate them into its foreign policy strategy?
While Mexico has taken an independent foreign policy, it firmly sees itself as part of North America. The U.S. movement to de-risk from China may be pivotal to realizing that vision.
South Africa wants a more multipolar world order where developing countries have more influence. It therefore views counterweights to U.S. power, including China and Russia, as friends rather than enemies.
Brazil is moving up the ranks of the global system, with the objective of taking on a greater role in geopolitical agenda-setting. It sees China’s rise as helpful for this objective.
Nigeria’s large economy and burgeoning soft power make it a critical emerging power in Africa. But domestic problems demand that Nigeria steer a careful middle path between the United States and its adversaries.
In recent years, Buenos Aires has sought stronger ties with China and membership in the BRICS. But with the recent election of far-right president Javier Milei, Argentina’s approach to the world may change.
As Indonesia joins the ranks of Asia’s rising powers, it will avoid alignment with either the United States or China.
India is increasingly aligned with the United States on China, but it is not squarely in Washington’s camp. It goes its own way when it comes to Russia.
As the United States has moved away from Saudi oil, the relationship between the two countries has grown complicated. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only deepened the divide.
Türkiye wants to maintain strategic independence by working with Russia and China even as it sustains its ties to the West.