Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
With the Turkish opposition’s stunning electoral upset on Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party are finally reaping the consequences of ill-considered macroeconomic policies. But the real winner of these critical local elections may be Turkish democracy.
Erdogan and his aides have wasted no time offering three reminders of the president’s power.
The outcome of Turkey’s vote will impact the country’s economy, governance, and international posture. A large victory of the ruling party would reinforce Erdogan’s personal power and strengthen his ties to Putin.
A forthcoming Carnegie paper will argue that to understand Syria’s future, we will have to focus on the country’s peripheries.
Turkey continues its balancing act, siding with the West on Ukraine but relying on Russia to pursue its ambitions of becoming a regional energy center. While progress toward bringing Turkey closer to the West will have its limits, there is scope for more cooperation between Brussels and Ankara.
Recent signs point to a rekindling of relations between Turkey and the West, particularly on action relating to Ukraine, but long-term energy dependencies indicate that Turkey and Russia will remain close partners for the foreseeable future.
Turkey’s dependence on energy imports has an impact on the country’s economic and geopolitical orientation. Turkish leaders should devise energy policies that respond to domestic priorities, regional ambitions, and the challenges posed by climate change.
The agreement, paired with Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession, is a much-needed opportunity to put the countries’ distressed relationship back on track.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has sought to maintain relations with both Russia and the West: an approach it will strive to continue.
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